by Brad Peck
To follow up John's post earlier here is what President Bush had to say on trade and growth at America's Small Business Summit two weeks ago.
From the same speech, the President calls for fair trade with Colombia.
by Tom Donohue
Small business owners are America’s unsung heroes. The nation’s 27 million small businesses represent more than 99% of all employers, account for about half of all private sector workers, and create 60%-80% of the nation’s net new jobs.
These dreamers and risk takers embody the entrepreneurial spirit that makes this country so great. They bring dynamic ideas, innovative services, and new products to the marketplace. They prove day after day that the American Dream is attainable if you have a good idea, work hard, and provide outstanding customer service.
That’s why the U.S. Chamber is proud to fight for these businesses every day in Washington, D.C., and why we’re always the first to sing their praises before the nation. We are among the loudest cheerleaders for entrepreneurs who work to make life better for their families, their employees, and their communities.
This week is National Small Business Week, and the Chamber celebrated early by holding its annual Small Business Summit in Washington, D.C., last week. Hundreds of small businesses came from across the country to hear from President Bush and other outstanding speakers and to rally for small business priorities on Capitol Hill.
A special part of the Summit is our Small Business of the Year Award, which recognizes a business for demonstrating excellence in financial performance, business planning, staff training and motivation, community involvement, and customer service.
This year’s winner - from hundreds of entrants across the country - is Permac Industries of Burnsville, Minnesota. Permac manufactures precision machine parts for a wide range of industries. Led by Darlene Miller, owner and president, Permac has grown from a simple screw machine shop into a state-of-the-art precision machining company. The company doubled the size of its plant in 2007 and increased profits by 15%.
Permac is a shining example of today’s small businesses - politically active, generous to their employees, and making a difference in their communities. Permac took part in a trade mission to India with Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty in 2007, offers a profit-sharing plan for all eligible employees, and established Hope for Tomorrow, a mentoring program for at-risk girls.
Whenever someone has doubts about the future of our country, they should stop and think about the millions of entrepreneurs who risk it all to make their dreams come true. When you think of their optimism, hard work, and sense of possibilities, you can’t help but conclude that America will continue to be the greatest nation on earth.
This article appears today in the Examiner: Baltimore, San Francisco, and Washington, DC editions
by Brad Peck
//Update: video and photos now available.
President Bush entered to a huge standing ovation this morning at America's Small Business Summit. After being welcomed to the Summit by Chamber President and CEO Tom Donohue, the crowd rose again as the President took the podium. It was a minute before he could begin to speak as the collected small business owners did not seem to want to stop their applause.
The President thanked everyone for venturing to Washington, and said that they were especially brave given that it was tax week. He noted that it was perhaps fortuitous that The Holy Father was also in town during tax week because it takes a miracle to keep the IRS out of American's pockets.
Appearing relaxed the President praised the "dreamers and doers" in the room and said that he truly believes that small business is what makes America great. He acknowledged that the economy has slowed, but reflected that we have had a pretty good run; 52 months of uninterrupted job growth, a record. He said that this slow down was not unforeseen and praised Congress for working with the Administration on a pro-growth stimulus package. The President felt that the stimulus package shows that it is possible for Democrats and Republicans to set aside political angles and actually do something for the American people.
Secretary Paulson told the President that the stimulus checks should begin arriving the second week of May and that a family of four could expect up to $1,800 dollars of relief. He lamented that some in Washington are dismissing that amount as insignificant, but for folks outside the Beltway who are worrying about meeting bills or saving for their kids' education it's a lot of money.
The President moved on to the investment tax incentives portion of the stimulus package. As an example of a small business using accelerated depreciation he mentioned meeting Darlene Miller of Permac Industries last week at the White House and the investments she was already able to make thanks to the incentives. He then gave warm congratulations to Darlene, and Permac, for winning this year's Small Business Of The Year Award. The President also spoke of meeting Tom Sawner and the immediate actions Tom's company Educational Options was able to take thanks to the stimulus.
The President expressed his gratitude to Darlene and Tom and to all of the small businesses in the audience for their contributions to the economy. According to his economic experts growth will pick up again starting in the 3rd quarter. The President said that we are going to rebound and come back strong; with small business leading the way.
President Bush moved on to business policy, with tax talk up first. He said that he truly believed in the philosophy that you can spend your money better than the government can. Given the volume of the applause, I believe most in the audience subscribe to the same philosophy.
The President was worried that many Americans don't remember life before tax relief, but if allowed to expire at the end of 2010, they would receive a harsh reminder. He said that small businesses would carry a disproportionate amount of the tax burden; with an average estimated tax increase of $4,000 dollars per year. If Congress wants to help the economy recover, they will end the uncertainty about taxes and make tax relief permanent.
Switching to trade President Bush reported that last year exports accounted for 40% of growth and that Congress has the chance to expand export opportunities to Colombia, Panama and Korea; three key democratic allies.
The President was very serious about Colombia. He felt that the House's action to change the rules in the middle of the game was inexcusable. President Bush said that leaders of Congress have made a serious error both from an economic and a security standpoint. A watching hemisphere looks to see how America treats its friends.
The President ran off the numbers on Colombia. Almost all imports from Colombia enter our country duty-free, but 9,000 U.S. companies, 8,000 of which are small businesses, pay heavy tariffs when selling to Colombia. Our trade motto should be "Just treat us like we treat you" in order to ensure a level playing field for American workers.
President Bush said that Colombian President Uribe has taken historic efforts to protect trade unionists, and their death rate is now lower than that of the general population. The President then encouraged Congress to take action on the trade deal and noted that it is not too late. He also said that he strongly supports Trade Adjustment Assistance to help workers in transition.
The President called for Small Business Health Plans to be implemented so that all businesses can get the same benefits of larger enterprises. He was very vocal on No Child Left Behind; and said that smart small businesses measure and adjust everyday; that is why they are successful. We need the same approach to education.
The last policy issue discussed was forced-unionizing "card check". President Bush explained that "card check" would strip American workers of a fundamental right to vote in secret, free of interference and intimidation. The President said that if such a bill were ever to cross his desk – and he leaned forward here for strong emphasis – "I WILL VETO IT!"
Regarding the role of government, The President stated:
"Government cannot create entrepreneurs; its role should be to create an environment for entrepreneurship."
The President said that it takes a lot to start and run a company; ingenuity and desire, a willingness to dream, and a willingness to work. He said he felt that spirit in the room (something we at the Chamber call The Spirit of Enterprise). President Bush then closed with:
"We are a hopeful and vibrant nation because we are a nation of hopeful, vibrant people."
by Brad Peck
On day three of the summit, Dr. Marty Regalia is on first to give us an economic outlook. Marty is the Chamber’s Chief Economist and Vice President for Economic and Tax Policy. Before coming to the Chamber in 1993, Marty served as the Director of Research for the Savings and Community Bankers of America (SCBA). Before that, he was Executive Vice President of Policy Development and Chief Economist for the National Council of Community Bankers.
Marty opened up by noting that ours is an economy which grows 95% of the time, so 95% of the time he gets to stand up and give good news. This might not be one of those times. The economy is a little rough.
Though not an optimist, he notes that despite all of the dire news, our GDP is growing, not rapidly, but growing. There is an even chance that we may see a declared "recession" this year, but if it is actually called a recession or not doesn’t really matter; people feel how they feel about the economy.
Marty covered a lot of ground and a lot of stats and I don't want to botch it. So I will just note a few observations. Jokes go over well with me.
The administration was smart to focus on a consumption based stimulus plan, though it is still being debated if the 2001 tax cuts worked. You see economists are people who see things happen in practice and then debate if it can happen in theory.
Housing was a classic bubble, similar to the S&L bubble. The first lesson to learn from bubbles is not to overstate the case. We heard that S&L bailouts were going to cost $500 billion, but it ended up about $150 billion, and thousands of S&L's shutdown. When half the industry is phased out it is not a bailout.
It also wasn't a bailout when the Fed stepped in on Bear Sterns, it was a reliquificaton of the credit markets.
The role of the Fed and the Federal Government is to prevent debacles, the only people "bailed out" on Bear Sterns were the American people who depend on credit services.
Regarding housing, legislative proposals which force terms on the industry will not work. We shouldn't bail out lenders or individuals who made bad decisions. Sometimes, Congress does best, when Congress does least.
The one sector of the economy which is going gangbusters is trade. All economic textbooks say that after a period of time a depreciation of your currency will improve your balance of trade. Now, so many things in economic textbooks don’t work as advertised, so it is rare to find one that does. It is working on trade. But it is not good economic policy in the long term to put downward pressure on your currency to improve trade. A better way would be to improve our savings deficit; gradually as not to discourage growth.
As Marty covered taxes I thought of an article in the Washington Post this morning which detailed the tactics which SEIU uses in "Ambushing Private Equity"
One example bugged me:
protesters in business suits sneaked into a private-equity conference at the Waldorf-Astoria hotel in New York, where Carlyle Group co-founder David M. Rubenstein was giving a speech. They sought to shame him with a banner that read: "Why does he pay taxes at a lower rate than the hotel's doorman?"
as I read the article and as Marty talked I thought of his recent Econ 101 column in our magazine:
Who pays?
So who pays all these taxes? For 2005, the most recent year for which information is available, IRS data indicate that taxpayers with adjusted gross income (AGI) in the top 1% of the population bore 39% of the total national income tax burden, while those in the top 5%, 10%, 25%, and 50% bore 60%, 70%, 86%, and 97%, respectively, of that burden. Those in the bottom 50% paid a paltry 3%! This proves, in part, the steep progressivity of the income tax system.
The Chamber's Steven Law was bothered by more than taxes and was quoted in the article.
"These campaigns are three-dimensional negative political campaigns waged against the reputation of the target," said Steven Law, general counsel for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. The SEIU's "true goal is to inflict as much pain as possible so that the employer gives the union what they want."
Andy Stern of the SEIU was also in the article and was quoted on the private equity and buyout industry.
"Our country and the rest of the world is living through the most profound, significant and transformative revolution in the history of the world," said SEIU President Andy Stern, whose union will spend $100 million trying to get candidates elected over the next two years. "What we are seeing is the growth of a new form of capitalism."
Of course, even the SEIU recognizes the benefits of private-equity buyout funds, and capitalism:
The buyout firms note that even as the SEIU blasts them, it benefits from private equity. The union's New York affiliate, 1199, has given Carlyle $15 million to manage its pension fund.
But back to Marty's presentation, the economy in brief, rough in the first, but rebounding in the second half of the year.
by Brad Peck
Although I will concede that I don’t get out as much as I used to, tonight was one of the most enjoyable evenings I have had in a while. The event, of course, was the U.S. Chamber Small Business of the Year Awards Dinner.
Past U.S. Chamber Chair Maura Donahue hosted and was assisted on stage by John Furner from Sam’s Club who graciously sponsored the award. I have to say, Maura and John executed the most brilliant sponsor and host acknowledgement pas de deux I have seen at this type of event. I could describe it to you, but you had to be there. So, you know, next year be here.
The regional finalists, announced in early March, were all on hand and it was a spirited affair. I had the pleasure of sitting with Dr. David Powers, a former Marine who is now running their family business Ocean Breeze Awnings in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. I felt like a bit of a uschamber.com magazine groupie as I recognized Dr. Powers from our November 2006 Success Insight article. We chatted about religion and politics, topics which are only polite in Washington D.C., that and how much you paid for your house.
There were great videos of all of the finalists and I will post those as soon as I get them converted, which will not be tonight, the high-energy of our entrepreneurs has exhausted me.
But enough already…the winner of the 2008 U.S. Chamber Small Business of the Year Award is...
Finalist from the Midwest Region...
From Burnsville, Minnesota...
PERMAC INDUSTRIES! (trust me, wild applause, go ahead, clap at home).
I had the pleasure of meeting Darlene Miller last week, when she was in town discussing the economic stimulus package with President Bush, and she was equally delightful tonight.
A week ago she credited her employees with all of her company's success and she did again tonight.
She concluded her thank you speech with "Yay Minnesota".
Yay Minnesota indeed, and yay Darlene and yay Permac and yay to Abstract Displays and Bayshore Solutions and Gracewinds Perinatal Services and Mammen Glass & Mirror and Seconn Fabrication and Tredway, Lumsdaine & Doyle.
They are wonderful companies, it was a wonderful evening.
by Sheryll Poe
The Chamber’s small business members came out in full, and vocal, force during the "Marketing to Expand Your Business" breakout session at America's Small Business Summit.
The standing room-only crowd of business owners wowed marketing expert Beth Goldstein, an adjunct professor at Boston University and the founder of Marketing Edge Consulting, with their marketing savvy. Still, there were plenty of audience members taking notes as Goldstein went through her eight marketing milestones presentation during the lively and informative 45-minute session.
Some takeaways:
by Brad Peck
Diane Frankenfield gave a very good presentation to our small businesses on the importance of good hiring. Diane, who is Vice President, eBusiness Strategy at Monster, I think captured the importance of hiring perfectly near the beginning of her session:
"If you hire well, you really don’t have to do anything else well. The first few hires are essential to deciding the fate of your business. Who do you invite into your kitchen?"
The first question of course is when do you hire?
Michael Eng from Abstract Display, Inc., one of our Awards finalists said, "For us it was a matter of wanting to stop working 80 hours a week and to start specializing more in our tasks."
Scaling a business requires a different skill set than creating or developing an idea. Small business founders are often conceptual thinkers; good first hires might be more literal thinkers who can help turn a great idea into a killer product.
I have pages of notes, but Diane was nice enough to give me her presentation, so you can view her entire road map to smart hiring. (PowerPoint)
The only other thing I will note is that Diane mentioned that job seekers are on-line today; the paper, smudgy finger, want-ads are history. Now before you dismiss this as something that someone from Monster has to say, I can say that I don’t know of anyone in my circle of friends or family who doesn’t use online job searching exclusively.
There were some very good questions, and it appeared that most people in the audience had used Monster before, hopefully using their Chamber discount. Diane suggested to one attendee who had a problem with out of area, and occasionally out of country applicants that instead of placing a job posting, they use the resume database which Monster offers, to do geographic specific searches. Given the flurry of note taking it seemed like a good idea to everyone in the room. Go check it out.
This was a lively session, with good back and forth between the attendees and panelists. The breakout was moderated by Ronald Monford, President and CEO, Mind Over Machines, Inc.; the panelists were Kevin Hourigan, CEO, Bayshore Solutions and a finalist for the Small Business of the Year Award; Eric Reed, Vice President, Verizon Communications; and Bob Mathew, President, Catalyst Web Services, LLC.
Ronald Monford of Mind Over Machines opened with the story of how he got into technology from the men's apparel business when he recognized that the line of work he was in represented the "old" economy and he decided to get into the new economy.
He pointed out the small business owners tend to "love to hate" technology, partly because it's hard to walk the line between budget and needs. Even during his days in the clothing business, there was the question of "How much do you spend on technology", although back then technology was represented by things like electric typewriters (I don't miss the Selectric or carbon paper).
Although he realized that he had to spend on technology, no one ever told him how much he needed to spend. Today we tend to rely on professionals to help us make this decision, and for small businesses the answer tends to be to outsource IT.
Ron then introduced each panelist, and asked them to give a brief description of what their company does.
Bob Mathew went first, and introduced his company, Catalyst Web Services, as one "founded by entrepreneurs, for entrepreneurs". They offer a web-based suite of core IT applications that cover small business needs such as email, electronic documents and collaboration.
In this area of "Software as a Service" (SaaS), Bob notes that it's been small business that's driving the technology forward, and that for most, it's a great fit.
He goes on to answer his rhetorical question of how this fits in with trends in the global economy with three answers:
1. Geographic dispersion of people. People work from different places, in virtual teams, and partner with other businesses. This trend isn't just international, but local as well with people living in different suburbs.
2. Green. Rising fuel costs are really forcing consideration of alternatives to physical proximity, and while options like telecommuting aren't necessarily for every business (or for every day), new technologies are improving on the limitations of old ones like VPN.
3. Global. Markets are increasingly global, and being web-based means being accessible anywhere, at anytime. For example, they noticed a large increase in business from places like Australia when their system became Mac compatible - not something they really considered would happen.
Eric Reed from Verizon's Broadband division spoke next. His key point was that small businesses need to "embrace technology" as a key to growth. Continued investment in infrastructure by Verizon and others will allow for more businesses like Bob's, and help to create new commercial markets.
Small businesses can become part of the supply chain for larger businesses, but a business has to use broadband for that to happen.
Verizon also supports green initiatives such as telework and video conferencing as alternatives to jumping on plane for meetings. He pointed out that there are lots of options for broadband connectivity, including satellite and cable and told the audience not to be intimidated by technology.
Kevin Hourigan of Bayshore Solutions introduced his company as one that helps businesses leverage the internet as a platform to grow their companies. He stressed that putting a toe in the water isn't testing technology, echoing the common theme that good use of technology is essential to running a successful business.
Kevin said that online and viral marketing can be the most cost-effective, shortest duration way to get your company in front of new audiences, and can help you get a national or global reach.
Business has been regionlized in its approach to reaching out to new customers - that means relying on methods such as yellow pages and billboards. Technology gets the same message national or global, in a push rather than pull method - and reaches them where they are.
There may be ads for lawyers in the paper, but how many people reading the paper are looking for lawyers, and what's the return on investment for that kind of non-targeted messaging? You want to get your message to people looking for your type of content.
Throughout the session, there were several questions and back and forth with the audience, some of which I'm including here.
Q: What's the latest in search engine optimization; what's the latest best practice?
Ron: Make sure Google picks up your keywords. (which got a laugh)
Bob: It's a little bit of cat and mouse, as people figure out what works, the algorithim changes. Google is increasingly going back to their roots of determining what's the most referenced source, by reputable sources, and using that to rank sites and page higher.
Ron (to the panel): Can you pay to get your listing higher?
Bob: You can, but you never know what paid bloggers will say, it's a risk.
Ron: In the early days of the web, we didn't even know what SEO was. Then we had people come in to optimize our pages, and it cost a lot of money. Even if you've had that done, you need to keep doing it. See where you come up in search because this all changes so quickly, but it's a lot cheaper to do now than it was before.
Eric: To the gentleman in the back without a website (there was only one person in the session without a website), you need to know that this is a way to reach to your audience.
Ron: Websites started off being informational, now they need to be functional. You need to be able to do business via your website. You don't need to be on the bleeding edge, but you do need to be on the cutting edge to allow customers to do things like set appointments or buy from your site.
Q: Bob, Do you have a different way of communicating with me vs. my employees?
Bob: Our service has to speak for itself. Dealing with the decsion maker is different than dealing with the various work habits of the users. Four years of observations of how people use our service shows that people are not just passionate, but self-righteous about how they work.
For the owner, we need to speak about cost, etc. For the user, how the service works for them is most importants.
Ron: After creating the TradeRoots site for the U.S. Chamber (back in the late 90's), we found that technology knowledge levels were very broad and discovered that many people didn't even have computers. Some small businesses have embraced technology, and these are the folks that are leading the commerce parade. If you have young people working in your office, listen to them. They can teach you new ways to do things that are more cost-effective than what you're used to. They're so many things out there that small businesses can miss if they're not in the mainstream of technology.
Q: What percentage of the marketing budget should be spent on online marketing?
Kevin: It depends on the business. You need to look at the cost of your overall marketing, which many businesses put at 2-3% of their total budget. I believe that businesses will find their customers faster, at lower cost, online.
I'll wrap up with Kenneth R. Wolfe, CPA (I'd list his website, but he doesn't have one), who asked several questions throughout the session, including a couple on Barack Obama's use of the Internet, which he kindly allowed me to use by name, and I've condensed and included below:
Q: Barack Obama's internet campaign, is there anything unique to what they're doing?
Kevin: Howard Dean showed how effective viral marketing can be and showed business that technology can spread our message without paying for it. Blogs, YouTube, etc. spread the message at no cost. The risk is that it can get in front of the wrong audience. Understanding your audience and getting the message to them is key.
Q: Are you saying that the first contact is like a chain letter?
Kevin: You can't control how the message is redistributed by the initial audience. But if you make it easy to redistribute, then you make it easier for that message to be spread, with the cost only for the message to be delivered the first time. With the use of technology, you can track to see who among the initial recipients read the message, and of those, how many sent it on. What's your cost to the original group vs. the cost of then reaching a much broader audience? As your message group grows, it allows you to reach more people with your initial message at no additional cost.
The key is how good your initial targeting is. If it goes to a good group, you increase the chance of it getting to like-minded people, rather than getting to a disinterested group
Audience Comment: I think you have to assume that everyone in the world can get their hands on your message, so you have to make sure you tailor your message to accomodate that.
Ron: It's the same as if your competitor gets your message: so what? You have to get it to your audience and if it gets to others, it doesn't matter.
Before attendees at America's Small Business Summit 2008 headed to Capitol Hill for meetings with lawmakers, U.S. Chamber of Commerce head lobbyist Rolf Lundberg conveyed to them the Top 5 commandments of lobbying, which were originally penned by Bruce Wolpe, author of "Lobbying Congress: How the System Works".
Commandment #1 – Thou Shalt Tell the Truth
Lobbyists are only as good as their word. They should tell the whole truth and nothing but the truth. Failure to tell the whole truth about an issue damages a lobbyist’s credibility with members of Congress.
Commandment #2 – Thou Shalt Not Promise More Than What Thou Can Deliver
If you promise to line up allies on an issue or generate grassroots support, then you had better follow through.
Commandment #3 – Thou Shalt Know How to Listen So Thou Knows What Thou is Hearing
Politics is about language. You must be able to interpret language spoken to you by a member of Congress. Don’t confuse phrases such as "I want to be with you on this," or "you’re right, something has to be done about that" with a firm commitment of support. In addition, even if a member of Congress indicates his or her commitment on an issue, always be prepared for the possibility that they will eventually vote against you, with the explanation of "there was a change in circumstances."
Commandment #4 – Thou Shalt Not Circumvent Congressional Staff
Members of Congress can’t possibly keep up on all of the issues the come before them, so they depend heavily on their staff for guidance and assistance. A lobbyist should develop strong relationships with staff.
Commandment #5 – Thou Shalt Not Spring Surprises
More than any other member of the human species, members of Congress do not like unexpected bad news. They demand relevant and timely information – how much support does a bill have? Where does the committee leadership stand on the bill? Where do other influential members stand? How has the issue been portrayed in the media?
A group of U.S. Chamber of Commerce lobbyists offered a few other pointers for visiting small business amateur lobbyists:
by Brad Peck
U.S. Chamber President and CEO Tom Donohue thanked Charlie and Stuart and said that they are in a frustrating business, a few months ago John McCain was packing up and going home and Hillary Clinton was measuring the drapes in the White House; and now…
Tom made the point that if you really want to know what is going on in the elections get out there and participate. I don’t think he liked being told that the race is lost before is has even begun.
I am going to get the video to post, so here are some of the points which garnered big applause.
America stands at a crossroads right now, but we are always at a crossroads, you can’t get in your car and go anywhere without encountering a crossroads. The key is what direction you turn.
Too many of our leaders, and potential leaders, are questioning whether free markets and global engagement are a good thing. They think that bigger and more expensive government is the answer to all of our problems; but our solutions must put more faith in people - and not in the government.
If the wrong candidates are elected, and if the wrong agenda takes hold, you as small businesspeople can take all the challenges you now face and double them!
First and foremost, they want government to have a lot more money to spend. Guess where they plan on getting it from – mostly from you!
By letting the Bush tax cuts expire, they can bring about the biggest tax hike in history – without even having to vote on it.
Most small businesses pay their income taxes as individuals, and many of these businesses find themselves in the higher brackets. Those taxes would be the first to go up.
A one sentence summary of the Colombia trade agreement. Everything they sell to us has zero tariffs, everything we sell to them gets slapped with 14% tariffs; the agreement takes the 14% to 0%. What they did with Colombia has to be the dumbest thing ever seen.
Now let’s look at what the unions hope to accomplish. They want to fundamentally change the carefully balanced labor-management rules to make it easy to unionize companies and shops of all sizes.
First, they want to pass something called the "Card Check" bill, which would essentially eliminate secret ballots in union elections – enabling union organizers to harass and intimidate workers into signing union cards, even at their homes.
Second, they want the right to create "mini-unions" – tiny groups of workers they could organize in workplaces, and then force the employer to negotiate with them.
If these measures become law, businesses like yours will be under siege.
The change which is offered is more taxes, more lawsuits, more unions, more regulations…and less trade, less energy, less innovation, and less enterprise.
That’s the wrong approach for America, and the American business community must keep our country from following this disastrous path.
Bill Miller’s group is working had to meet our adversaries on the ground in this pivotal election year. We must have the most vigorous voter education and political program in history to turn out the business vote.
It starts with every individual who has a stake. Everyone needs to get out and do something.
by Brad Peck
I don’t think that Stuart Rothenberg or Charlie Cook require an introduction; they were nice enough come today for a discussion of the political environment and the elections.
Charlie Cook starts by saying that he thinks this election is as wacky as 1968. He lists out a host of problems faced by the Republican Party but thinks that McCain may have a shot which is odd, given that it is difficult for a party to hold on to the Presidency for longer than two terms. He finds it miraculous that McCain is running even. The time-to-change sentiment is too strong.
Cook used the Samuel Johnson quote "A second marriage is the triumph of hope over experience." - as a "somewhat unfair" characterization of the Democratic race. But "new direction" versus experience is essentially the demarcation line among Democratic voters.
Last year he thought Clinton was a shoo-in, but yet she is losing, not by much, but enough not to be able to catch up. Cook compared the primary processes by saying that the Republican primaries are Darwinian, someone will evolve and advance; the Democratic primaries are like an elementary school field-day, nobody loses, everyone gets ribbons.
Cook closed by saying that he knows that there are arguments brewing whether McCain is actually a Conservative, or even a Republican. He then said that if the Republicans were to field a candidate which talk-radio and other commentators love; they wouldn’t stand a "snowballs chance in hell in the general elections."
Rothenberg took over to discuss the Republican side; he said that the desire for change is also present there. They don’t hate President Bush, but when asked about him, they "sigh a lot". It isn’t that he did a bad job, they would have just liked a better job.
Rothenberg thinks that McCain benefits from the idea of change, isn’t sure that much passion is there, but that Republicans will vote for him, so no base problem. Plus, since he is a "different kind of Republican", he will appeal to swing voters.
Rothenberg then gave some data on the challenges faced by the "Republican Brand", but thinks that people generally think of McCain differently, and that polls basically show the election right now as a tie. He thinks that McCain has a lot of problems to overcome, but that it is a long campaign and McCain basically needs to stay on his A-game, and it will be a fight.
But again, echoing Cook's theme, it is a wacky race and anything could happen. He does think that the Republicans will lose House and Senate seats. In the teens for the House, and three to five in the Senate.
Some Q & A:
Q: Is there any secret to Obama’s internet fundraising success.
Cook: Certain kinds of candidates are more able to take advantage of the internet than others. For instant if you took all of Howard Dean’s internet people in 2004 and moved them Dick Gephardt’s campaign, it would not have been what it became.
Q: Will the Rezko case in Chicago impact Obama, or does he have a teflon coat.
Rothenberg: Rezko has been covered, extensively in D.C., it would depends what comes out. If something does come out to chip away at Obama image as a new, fresh, different politician, it could matter.
Q: Should the Republicans look at creating gridlock in the Senate as a strategy. And what are Sununu’s chances
Cook: I think that divided government functions best, both parties have to many self-destructive behaviors. The best long term plan for the Republican party would be to lose this election, and let the Democrats blow themselves up.
Rothenberg: I think the Democrat’s recognize that 2006 was not about them, and are basically doing very little in Congress to show that they are "mature" enough for the Presidency. He thinks Sununu is a toss up right now, but has the toughest race and will lose.
Q: I am a moderate Republican from Alabama in a liberal industry, the book business, a view years ago I heard Obama speak and was completely enamored, but once I reviewed his record, there isn’t much there, there. Will this come out?
Cook - Well Clinton has hit it hard, but at least among Democratic voters, experience has been devalued over the past few years. They view Cheney and Rumsfeld and say, hmm, maybe experience isn’t a good thing. This is similar to 1992, when the Cold War was ending and the door was open for a little-known Governor from Arkansas, because foreign policy experience was devalued.
Rothenberg: It depends on the campaign, Obama needs to disciplined, one slip up could bring the experience issue to the forefront, but generally the general election will be about ideology.
by Brad Peck
David Chavern introduced our first speaker, U.S. Senator Ben Nelson, Democrat from Nebraska. Senator Nelson is a good friend of the U.S. Chamber, a true consensus builder able to work across party lines to get things done.
For example, he was part of a core group in 2001 that cobbled together a coalition that supported $1.35 trillion in tax cuts. He has long been a champion of greater access to health for America’s small businesses, including the 30,000 in his home state. The Senator is a cosponsor of bipartisan legislation that would allow small businesses to arrange their health benefits through pooling arrangements.
Prior to being elected to the Senate in 2000, Senator Nelson was a two-term governor of Nebraska known for balancing budgets, reducing taxes, and opposing unfunded federal mandates. There was strong applause for Senator Nelson, a feisty audience.
Senator Nelson is funny; don’t want to tip his material, but funny. He noted that he is a pledged super-delegate pledge to Obama. He says the fact that he and Senator Kennedy have both endorsed Obama is proof that Obama can bring both sides together.
The Senator then talked about the Small Business Health Plans Act of 2008, which would allow small businesses to pool their resources. It seems like such a no brainer, he wonders why we can’t get 60 Senators to do the right thing. He thinks that we are making progress, but it is time to ramp up all of our efforts and he encouraged everyone present to contact their Senator to DEMAND small business health plans for our entrepreneurs. He is confident that the Nelson-Enzi plan is the best one out there and will immediately reduce insurance costs and add one million people to the ranks of the insured.
This is private insurance, and will not add government costs. He believes that given the challenges facing our country on health care, it is important to tackle the problem piecemeal, not with some grand plan. We need to treat the solutions as a jig-saw puzzle which we need to put together and not focus on a government solution.
He closed again with a strong request that everyone in the room call their Senator today, and demand small business health solutions.
This is truly my favorite event of the year. Some attendees are new to the Summit and first time visitors to Washington. Some are seasoned veterans, familiar with the ways of the Hill and are actively engaged with their members of Congress. They exchange the warm greetings of old friends, attendees from previous years or fellow small business council members. But a single quality shines through every one of our small business attendees: They are passionate believers in the spirit of small business. They are passionate about what they do. They feel blessed to be doing what they love. They are all so happy to be in Washington, on a crisp and clear evening, on the roof of the Chamber overlooking the White House, meeting other enthusiastic business owners.
Some observations from tonight’s fantastic event, Photos on the Roof, thanks to sponsorship by Verizon:
Leslie Schweitzer summed up the E-mail or call Your Representative opportunity, "Small business is excited about trade, and they are engaged with their representatives in Congress. They write to them all the time. This event helped to solidify their resolve and to become even more engaged on trade issues."
In separate banter on the roof, one attendee remarked, "Oh yes, you can bet I will be writing to my Senator. My Senator only voted 30% in favor of business issues. Not enough to qualify for How They Voted. That’s not OK"
And another, "I am so excited to finally meet the Blue Ribbon winners! I’ve been talking with them for months, it seems, and finally, they are here."
The Minnesota delegation, led by the Chamber’s Doug Loon, is one of the many groups attending the Small Business Summit 2008.
The 50+ delegation was all abuzz. "We come to this event every year. I’d follow Doug [Loon] anywhere!"
by Brad Peck
The core programming for the Summit starts tomorrow, but thanks to the Chamber’s Council on Small Business, we have a bonus session. Frank Luntz and Michael Maslansky, two of the leaders at Luntz Maslansky Strategic Research, are here to help our attendees better communicate to their customers and employees, as well as to public officials.
Luntz Maslansky Strategic Research is a strategic communications and market research firm that uses surveys, traditional focus groups, and instant response dial sessions to find the exact words and phrases that make a real difference.
On to the show:
Frank Luntz opened with a (clean) joke about the Pennsylvania debate tonight, and pointed out how good Obama has been in setting the visuals around his campaign. He thinks that Obama is a fantastic communicator and will have a strong advantage over McCain in the general election, particularly at the end of a debate when they cross the stage to shake hands and the age difference becomes apparent. Obama exemplifies youth, change and hope.
Luntz then moved on to the best of the campaign ads, with his "Instant Response" tracking. He is working the debate tonight so he moved quickly, but did a good job of covering the material.
An Obama ad out of the gate; the message is about achievement and opportunity. The past is in black and white, the future is in color; the past is in slow-motion, the future is sped up. The approval lines are amazing. A really good Giuliani ad which I had never seen followed, also well liked. Actually all of these ads were well liked; he is showing the good ones after all.
Cueing off the Giuliani ad, Luntz asked the crowd how many of the business owners in the crowd had started their business. It was amazing, a forest of hands. Frank encouraged the crowd not to be shy and use their story in talking about their companies.
Luntz then showed the Richardson job interview ad, one of my favorites; and one of Romney’s better ads which focused on his leadership of large enterprises, versus Clinton's "internship" in the White House. Then Clinton's energy plan ad attacking oil companies. He said this Clinton ad worked, because she actually participated.
Again, he had to catch a train, so a couple of quick questions.
A Norm Coleman supporter from Minnesota asked "Hope and change is arguably the big theme in this election, but isn’t that always the case."
Luntz said that Obama articulates hope and change better than any candidate in recent history. He thinks McCain should acknowledge that fact, in public, and acknowledge that some day Obama would be a great leader for the country. But now is not that day.
Question: Who should the candidates pick for VP?
Luntz: Sam Nunn or Evan Bayh for Obama. For McCain, someone like Tom Ridge
Question: How do we fix our election and primary processes?
Luntz: It doesn’t need to be fixed, all three of the remaining candidates, though I might have not chosen them, deserve to be where they are; and it is great that so many people have become active and joined the political process, and great that we have had over 40 debates. A problem for business is that so many of those who have become active don’t understand, or in some cases don’t believe in, the free market system.
Michael Maslansky took over, and brought the conversation around from politics to customer relations and marketing. This is sort of the bread and butter of their company so I don’t want to give away too much. You can buy the book or hire them.
I do however like "fun with polls"
67% Americans can name three stooges; 17% can name three Supreme Court Justices.
One of Obama’s successes is that he doesn’t talk about issues, he talks above issues.
28% believe that social security will exist by the time they retire; 46% believe that UFO’s exist.
We have taken out of the system the expectation that Social Security will be there. But we haven’t replaced it with anything, this is a dangerous gap.
On the importance of language:
What should be your states spending priorities:
"Improving the State’s Infrastructure" only gets 10% support;
"Improving the State's roads, highways, reservoirs, schools, and wastewater" gets 31%Would you support raising taxes?
For law enforcement: 51%
To halt the rising crime rate: 68%
The lesson - don’t talk about the processes or features, but about the benefits.
For the first time ever a majority of Americans believe that the next generation will inherit an America which is worse than the American their parents gave them. The rub is that we haven’t reached the point where people want to sacrifice.
It comes back to one of my favorite phrases: "Everyone wants to go to heaven, no one wants to die."
We need a candidate who acknowledges the need for change, but also acknowledges the costs and inspires the sacrifices needed.
Luntz, before he left, alluded to the above and said that he believes that Obama does an amazing job of inspiring the American dream, but that McCain can show that he has lived it.
by Sheryll Poe
Health representatives from the three presidential campaigns traded barbs as they offered differing visions of the future of the U.S. health care system at the annual meeting of the U.S. Chamber’s Council on Small Business.
Dr. Nicole Lurie, representing Sen. Barack Obama’s (D) campaign, Dr. Gail Wilensky representing Republican candidate Sen. John McCain’s campaign and Gene B. Sperling, representing Sen. Hillary Clinton’s (D) campaign answered questions submitted by U.S. Chamber members and debated over which candidate had a health care plan that would guide the U.S. towards a system of higher quality, lower costs, and greater access for all Americans.
The April 16 panel discussion included a Web cast with more than 400 participants in addition to the 150 attendees at the Chamber’s Washington D.C. headquarters. The panel was one of several events that kicked off the Chamber’s America’s Small Business Summit, April 16-18.
A full report on the panel and the Summit will appear in the June issue of uschambermagazine.com.
I have the great pleasure this afternoon to open America’s Small Business Summit 2008, the Chamber’s premier small business event. As our President and CEO Tom Donohue says:
The Summit is a celebration of the entrepreneurial spirit, jobs, and prosperity that small businesses contribute to our society. It’s also an opportunity for small businesses to learn about and mobilize around key legislative, regulatory, and operational issues that are critical to their success.
This is the Chamber’s fourth Small Business Summit, and each one gets better. The highlight of our event this year will be remarks from President Bush on Friday morning. We're very pleased to be able to offer this once-in-a-lifetime experience.
Our two-day program will cover the economy, politics and policy, hiring, marketing, and other topics that impact small business. The program was designed to give access to the Chamber’s policy experts and top managers; political pundits; and lawmakers on Capital Hill.
We hope the attendees will take full advantage of this opportunity to tell us and the top decision-makers in this town about the obstacles and opportunities they face as a business owner. Their participation in the political process is the single biggest factor in the Chamber’s success as a small business advocate in Washington.
For the past five consecutive years, employers have seen double-digit health care premium increases. At least 1.5 million Americans are sickened, injured, or killed each year by errors in prescribing, dispensing, and taking medications. Nearly 47 million Americans still lack health insurance. The United States has the world’s best health care, but the delivery system is wasteful and inefficient. Congress must take steps now to improve our broken health care system. Small business owners will "Rally on the Hill" on April 17 to tell their legislators how important heath care reform is for their business, employees, and community.
What Congress should do to improve our health care system:
Pass Health Information Technology (IT) Legislation - Health IT legislation would provide standards for secure, uniform, interoperable health IT, including electronic medical records and prescription systems. Health IT is also a necessary component of a transparent cost and quality information system so that consumers have full access to information.
Provide Wellness/Prevention Incentives - Employers play an integral role in improving Americans’ health by proactively adapting their health plans to focus on wellness, prevention, and chronic disease management. Wellness programs also lead to a reduction in health care spending.
Allow Pooling Arrangements for Small Business - Federal employees, many state employees, Medicare enrollees, and employees of self-insured companies are exempt under federal law from state benefit mandates. Therefore, the higher prices brought about by mandates falls on small businesses, the self-employed, and unemployed. Allowing small businesses to band together across state lines to purchase health care will increase their negotiating power and exempt them from costly state benefit mandates.
Make Health Care More Affordable and Accessible - The Chamber continues to support passage of legislation to help businesses provide affordable coverage for employees, including improvements to Health Savings Accounts; tax deductibility of premiums for individuals and the self-employed; more small business insurance options; and modifications to the use-it-or-lose-it rule for Flexible Spending Accounts.
Establish Tax Parity for Health Insurance Premiums - Health insurance premium costs should receive comparable tax treatment whether paid through an employer-based setting or through the private marketplace. The tax code’s favoritism of employment-based health insurance undermines portability, which is important given that 40% of new workers change jobs within a year.
Encourage Cost and Quality Transparency - The U.S. health care system has an unacceptable error rate and inconsistent outcomes. Transparency allows consumers to make informed decisions when choosing doctors and hospitals. Benefits could be designed to steer people to the most efficient and highest quality providers and treatment options. Applying quality standards to health care purchasing ultimately will help contain health care costs.
What Congress should not do is pass new mandates
Individual coverage mandates and new federal benefit mandates on businesses will raise the cost of health care.
Attend America's Small Business Summit 2008 to join the Rally and learn more about the new "Small Business Health Plans Act of 2008" from Washington insiders.
President George W. Bush will speak at America's Small Business Summit 2008 on Friday, April 18. The nation's 43rd president will address attendees on small business policy and the U.S. economy.
Please stay tuned for additional information on security procedures and agenda updates.
Register today while space is still available.
