The ChamberPost

Deliverable from Chamber Doha Mission

by Christopher Wenk

One of the key outcomes of the Chamber's Doha Trade Delegation to both Brussels and Geneva last week was a joint Transatlantic Business Community letter that was finalized and sent to USTR Ambassador Ron Kirk and EU Trade Commissioner Karel de Gucht yesterday. The letter was a key point of discussion during the Chamber's meeting with BusinessEurope in Brussels on July 13.

 The letter urges for greater cooperation between U.S. and EU negotiators in the Doha Round (particularly on NAMA and Services) but also demonstrates that business communities across the Atlantic are not content with what is currently on the table. More ambition is going to be required to get Doha over the finish line. This letter is a significant development at a significant time in the negotiations. The aura of July 2008 is wearing off.

Besides the Chamber and BusinessEurope, the letter was signed by the European Services Forum, Coalition of Service Industries, National Association of Manufacturers and Business Roundtable.

Doha: 2011 or Bust

by Christopher Wenk

The Chamber's Doha Trade Delegation just concluded our visit to Geneva, which followed our stop earlier this week in Brussels. Of course, Geneva is the home of the World Trade Organization (WTO). This month marks the 2 year (forgettable) anniversary of the failed ministerial. I was at that ministerial, the longest ever WTO ministerial, representing the Chamber. Everyone remembers the dramatic collapse and blame game that followed. 2 years later, things have changed and yet stayed the same. On substance, we have a ways to go but Doha's death has been greatly exaggerated many times before. However, 2011 is a realistic window of opportunity and our trip to Geneva confirmed that.

Over the course of the past few days we met with a wide range of key players in the talks: WTO Director General and Lead Doha Sherpa Pascal Lamy, new U.S. Ambassador Michael Punke and his team, and Ambassadors from Brazil, China, South Africa, Australia, New Zealand, Colombia, Malaysia plus the Charge D' Affairs of the EU. If people recall, the U.S. did not have an Ambassador in place all of last year (and I heard a lot of criticism of that fact on my last 2 visits here in 2009). No one is making the same stink about the fact that the EU does not have an Ambassador here and likely won't till later this year.

Michael Punke got high marks from everyone we met with. He has hit the ground running since he arrived a few months ago. More than anything, Punke has truly challenged the status quo in the negotiations and these efforts will surely bear fruit down the road. We strongly support his efforts to shore up the ambition in the Round so we have a credible package we can take back and sell to Congress. We CAN sell such a package, but we can't sell what is on the table from that failed Ministerial 2 years ago. The Chamber's trip to Geneva proved that we are putting our money where our mouth is by showing up and demonstrating that we are committed to a successful outcome. Where are business communities from other countries?

There are a few developments that have helped change the dynamics in Doha (in a positive way). First, the G20 Summit in Toronto was the first time there was a substantive discussion on Doha by Leaders, including President Obama. They talked substance for the first time and the communiqué that instead of  setting another artificial deadline, it empowered negotiators in Geneva to build up what's on the table right now. The other significant development is that everyone in Geneva now sees that the trade train is starting to move in Washington which of course was not the case last year. The announcement by the Administration that it wants to resolve outstanding issues in the Korea FTA helps build the case that the U.S. is serious about trade (and doubling exports!!). This was mentioned in many of our meetings. Movement on the Korea FTA, and hopefully Colombia and Panama, can help lay the groundwork for Doha.

2011 is a unique window of opportunity to take care of the unfinished trade agenda. Our trip to Geneva reaffirmed that it's possible to get a Doha deal in 2011. The Chamber is ready to push to make it happen. The Administration should seize the opportunity to make it happen. If not, it will be hard to keep business groups like the Chamber interested in the Doha Round.

More interestingly, 2011 would also make the prediction of my old boss Frank Vargo at the NAM come true:

Tokyo Round took 6 Years
Uruguay Round took 8 Years

Do the math, 6-8-10

Doha was launched in 2001+10=2011.

Business is ready to pick up the pressure to build some momentum and make it a reality. Let's get an ambitious and balanced Doha agreement done in 2011.  No reason it can't be done. The excuses are running out.

Doha in 2011 or Bust.

U.S.-EU Need to Work Together to Conclude Doha

by Christopher Wenk

The Chamber's Doha Trade Delegation just wrapped up two days of meetings in Brussels, Belgium with key EU trade officials and EU business groups to discuss ways to unlock the long-stalled Doha Round of World Trade Organization (WTO) negotiations. I am here with senior company officials, and key Chamber members, to demonstrate our strong desire to see an ambitious and successful outcome to the talks.

While in Brussels we met with DG Trade Director-General David O'Sullivan, key officials to EU Commission President Baroso and EU Trade Commissioner de Gucht, key members of the EU Parliament Committee on International Trade (INTA), Business Europe and AmCham EU among others.  We had some very constructive meetings where we exchanged views and perspectives on where the Doha Round stands and how we can break the continued logjam. The Peterson Institute's excellent recent study Figuring Out the Doha Round, was a key point of discussion in all of our meetings.  Our delegation strongly expressed our view that we need to find a way to shore up the ambition of what is currently on the table if we are going to have any hope of getting to an endgame in Doha. The Peterson study highlights some key areas (Services, Sectoral negotiations in the industrial goods or "NAMA" pillar of the negotiations and Trade Facilitation) that would help top up the ambition in the Round which would be a win-win for both developed, and more importantly, developing countries.

Notably, the Chamber (in conjunction with other US business groups like the National Association of Manufacturers and Coalition of Service Industries) is finalizing a letter with Business Europe, which is an association of more than 40 European industrial federations and employer groups, to USTR Ron Kirk and EU Trade Commissioner de Gucht urging the U.S. and EU to work together to seek more ambition in Doha. That letter will be sent in the days ahead. Working together, the U.S. and EU can pave the way for a successful conclusion to the Round. Of course, a successful conclusion will require a stronger contribution from countries like Brazil, China and India. Those countries are much bigger players in the global economy than they were in 2001 when Doha was launched.

Off to Geneva to the pulse of the negotiations...

WTO Ministerial Wrap-Up: We Say What We Mean and the New Kamal Nath

by Christopher Wenk

As I board a plane in Geneva, I know you all want a debrief and final thoughts on the last 3 days. Pull up your chair.

The 7th WTO Ministerial Conference concluded successfully yesterday without a hitch. The closing ceremony was about an hour (shorter than expected), but once again I blinked too soon. I hear that a handful of protestors snuck into the complex of the Ministerial with candles and signs that said: "Doha is dead." If Doha was dead, I would not be coming to Geneva as much as I do -- twice within the last month and thrice since May.

Several of my other colleagues from the business community have been here as well. Doha is certainly not dead and the United States is not the sole reason that Doha has not concluded since it started over 8 years ago. Last time I checked, there were 152 other members of the World Trade Organization (WTO). The Chamber, the U.S. Business Community, the Obama Administration and Congress want Doha to succeed!!! Anyone who says otherwise is lying or spinning the truth.

One thing is absolutely crystal clear about where we stand on Doha after the last 3 days (and longer frankly): The United States says what it means. I wish the same was true for other key players. Ambassador Kirk was crystal clear this week that about the best way to move forward to a successful conclusion. The key players, which include at least the U.S., EU, Brazil, China and India, need to begin endgame negotiations on what the final package needs to look like to be politically saleable. The current process and negotiating structure simply has not worked. There is no secret to the U.S. negotiating position. And there is no light between the Administration, Congress and business community position that we need clarity about what’s on the table and that only creative thinking will get us to where we want to be. Deadlines and timetables will not get us a successful agreement, only a deal with tangible and substantive benefits will get us to the red zone with the end zone in striking distance. Some say that Doha is 80 percent finished, but I feel like 80 percent of the negotiation has been posturing and gamesmanship. Do countries really TRULY want Doha to succeed?

Now a few words about the chess game of the Doha Round, which has seen many players (and a WTO Director General) come and go. Many of you will recall my countless rants about the former Indian Commerce Minister Kamal Nath during the July 2008 Ministerial. In some ways, it appears that the baton has been passed on from Nath to the Brazilian Foreign Minister Celso Amorim. Why do I say this?

It is quite clear the Amorim is a leading proponent (if not the leading proponent) of completely blaming the United States for the current gridlock in Doha. His behavior during the Ministerial backs this up. Unfortunately, I could not find a news story to back this up, but I heard from two people that, before the Ministerial even started, he said that Doha was going to have to wait for the next President of the United States to conclude -- or something along those lines. Additionally, I attended a press conference on Wednesday morning where Amorim and Trade Ministers  from other developing and advanced developing  countries were taking about a newly sealed south-south trade preferences deal. When asked by a reporter if this program was backtracking from Doha, Amorim curtly stated: "I'm not trying to unravel Doha like some countries are." Clearly he was referring to the United States.

Not once has Ambassador Kirk, or any Administration official, said that the U.S. was going to walk away from what has already been negotiated. Perhaps Amorim becomes confused that he wears a few hats for the Brazilian government: Foreign Minister and lead trade negotiator. Doha doesn't need more gamesmanship and finger pointing. It needs serious people to work together to get a deal done. It is much too early for Brazilian Presidential politics (election due in October 2010) to be playing into Doha. One of my biggest criticisms of Nath during the July 2008 Ministerial was that he was much more interested in campaigning than negotiating.

Ok. So here is my (non-Chamber sanctioned) prediction on Doha: 2010 will be the most successful year in Doha since the Round was launched; Negotiating Ministerial before the end of the year; final agreement in 2011.

WTO Ministerial Winding Down in Geneva: "We can do this."

by Christopher Wenk

The 7th WTO Ministerial in Geneva is rapidly coming to a close. Drama free, conflict free, breakdown free. Just to show how easy this Ministerial went off, they are even ending it a few hours earlier than expected. They ran out of Trade Ministers to take up the 3 minute time slots during the plenary and working sessions. I offered to speak myself, but I didn’t have the right badge! The closing session is expected to start here very shortly, which will be accompanied by various reports/summaries of what went on over the past few days. Without a doubt, you can sense a relief among some people that this went off as easy as it did. Yes, there was some finger pointing, but things didn’t blow up. During a meeting with a Latin American Ambassador this afternoon, he said of the Ministerial: "See, we can do this." The WTO put together a nice slideshow that can be seen on their website.

Perhaps a successful Ministerial is what the WTO, and the Doha Round needed, to help build some confidence and trust going forward. But, of course, we should not get carried away. It was just a meeting of some talking head Trade Ministers. With regards to Doha, positions are still quite firm and the "outside the box " thinking we really need to move Doha forward continues to elude us. On a separate note, the Ministerial provided an opportunity for a lot of outside group events as well. And protests too of course. I had the opportunity and pleasure to participate in a session sponsored by the Global Business Dialogue (GBD) where I spoke about the issue of Trade and Climate change and the intersection between the UN and the WTO. And I made Judge Morris' quote of the day:

"I am of the view, and the Chamber is of the view, that the WTO should be a little more aggressive on this issue." Christopher Wenk - December 1, 2009

Comment: Mr. Wenk has put his finger on a real problem. Unfortunately, from our rather poor vantage point, it may be a problem without a solution. We had understood Mr. Lamy's declaration of "climate first" as a plea not to prejudge the outcome of the Copenhagen meeting and an expression of hope that the negotiators in Copenhagen might in fact be able to forge an agreement on a post-Kyoto protocol. In that scenario, the logic of waiting is clear enough. If an early climate agreement were in the offing, it would make sense for those responsible for trade to wait for that agreement and then consider, mutatis mutandis, what changes might then be called for in the trading system. On the other hand, a new global climate could remain a distant goal for a long time, with national regimes proliferating in the interim. In that situation, some signals from the WTO about how those regimes should handle "carbon leakage," competitiveness, and trade might well be in order. That all sounds simple enough until one starts asking the obvious questions about those signals: Could they be general and directional? Would a new statement by the Director-General be enough? Or would such signals have to come in the form of rules, generated by negotiations and sanctified by consensus. You see the problem, and we haven't even touched on what those rules might have to cover.

Drama Free WTO Ministerial - Day 2 Recap

by Christopher Wenk

The highlight at day two of the Ministerial in Geneva was the "non-protest by farmers" that I missed – as did countless of the Ministerial attendees.  Three tractors and some signs: "Doha is dead" and "Pascal is a pig" were some of the reported ones. I understand that the Geneva police escorts far outnumbered the protestors. Sorry to disappoint, next time I will try not to blink.

On to business, one of the running points of discussion at the Ministerial is whether (and when) there should be a "stocktaking" of Doha. This was raised by numerous Trade Ministers over the last few days. As people may recall, this was called for in the G20 Leaders statement in Pittsburgh. A specific date was not defined but it said "early 2010", which will be here in a flash. Ambassador Kirk has rightly said that a negotiating ministerial is out of the question early next year.

It is not clear when exactly it will be fleshed out whether (or when) a “stocktaking” would take place next year; nor is it clear what the exact purpose and format of such an exercise would be. Unfortunately, road maps and timelines have not worked in the last 8 years. One could even argue that this Ministerial is a “stocktaking” in itself – about both the WTO and Doha. We will see what tomorrow brings on this front. There is not going to be a "communiqué" out of the Ministerial but rather a report summarizing what happened here this week.

On a side note, there is a sizeable US business delegation here, as well as a sizeable congressional staff delegation made up of senior staff members from the House Ways and Means Committee, Senate Finance Committee and Senate Agriculture Committee. I think it is very important they are here. It certainly demonstrates that Congress is still very interested and committed to achieving a successful outcome in Doha.

Tomorrow is the last day of the Ministerial, which will have similar format to today. Plenary sessions and working sessions (topic: The WTO's contribution to recovery, growth and development) followed by the closing session. The Ministerial take-off and flight have been relatively smooth, we'll see about that landing tomorrow.

And I am still gathering my thoughts on Celso Amorim...

Tractors and Trade - WTO Ministerial Day 2

by Christopher Wenk

Lots of hustle at bustle at day 2 of the World Trade Organization's (WTO) 7th Ministerial Conference. Trade Ministers have two different soap boxes provided to them today to give their speel on all topics WTO and trade-related. There are plenary sessions, which provide Trade Ministers an opportunity to make prepared statements. 3 minute rule applies. Also, there are working sessions that Ministers can take part in. Today's working session topic: "Review of WTO activities, including the Doha Work programme." Ditto on 3 minute rule. Same format tomorrow with a closing session to cap it all off.

As previously reported, we are expecting another protest today. It was supposed to be this morning, but is now getting pushed back to this afternoon sometime (Geneva time) so perhaps in the next few hours. It is reportedly a farmer's protest, specifically the rumor is that there will only be a few tractors. That would be disappointing. Will provide visual confirmation of this fact if possible. And any other news worthy updates. Admittedly, protest tracking is not in my job description.

On the news front, you can sense the intense scrutiny and skepticism of the U.S. negotiating position in Doha. While this Ministerial is not a "negotiating" session, Doha is the elephant in the room. Many countries would claim that the U.S. is the zookeeper and needs to get out of the way. Tractors, elephants. What's next? What it comes down to is that countries are looking for "U.S. Leadership in Doha." Of course, leadership means different things to different people. Caving is the preferable leadership style in Doha right now. But that is not an option and would not be saleable in Congress.

Of interest, I saw several people walking around carrying today's version of Washington Trade Daily at the Centre International de Conferences Geneve (CICG). One person had heavily highligted the lead story:

An Increasingly Isolated US - Geneva: As the first of a three-day regular World Trade Organization ministerial meeting got underway yesterday, the United States appeared by many members to be as isolated as ever as the struggling Doha Development Agenda goes into its ninth year.

Yesterday, US Trade Representative Ron Kirk flatly rejected a suggestion from several industrialized and developing countries for a ministerial gathering early next year to assess the prospects of concluding the stalled trade negotiations in 2010, WTD has learned. The United States also turned down any idea of drafting revised negotiating texts in agriculture or nonagricultural market access.

The US stance was seen as a huge setback to concerted efforts here by Australia, the European Union and Brazil along with World Trade Organization Director General Pascal Lamy to prepare the groundwork for revised texts in an effort to move negotiations forward in agriculture and NAMA modalities, several trade ministers told WTD.

In his formal remarks to the opening plenary yesterday, Mr. Kirk said "success is possible in 2010," but added "substance will drive progress and success is not something that one member, or any small group of members can deliver or dictate." He maintained that "success is not something that negotiating group chairs or our esteemed Director General can deliver for us.... While work programs and stock takings are useful, we cannot confuse process with substance."

"All shortcuts will only lead to further delays and dead ends," the USTR added. He said, "there simply is no substitute for the hard work of negotiations in all formats among members ranging from large groups to direct bilateral engagement."

One trade minister described the speech as symbolic of "the US versus the rest of the world in the Doha negotiations." Clearly, such rhetoric is unhelpful if we want to move the ball forward in Doha. We have tried the same way for 8 years to get to a final result and we are still stuck. Backing the United States into a corner on Doha will lead to failure.

WTO Ministerial Gets Underway in Geneva, All Eyes on Kirk

by Christopher Wenk

The 7th World Trade Organization (WTO) Ministerial Conference got underway this afternoon, with opening addresses from key people including WTO Director-General Pascal Lamy, USTR Ambassador Ron Kirk, outgoing EU Trade Commissioner (and soon to be EU Foreign Policy Chief: Kissinger will be happy to get that phone number) Catherine Ashton, Brazilian Foreign Minister Celso Amorim, Australian Trade Minister Simon Crean among others.

Not unexpectedly, all eyes were on Kirk’s 3 minute address (more to come on that).  This is his second trip to Geneva since being USTR. I also happened to be in Geneva on his first visit in May.

The Ministerial is taking place in the heavily barricaded Centre International de Conferences Geneve (CICG) and includes over 3,000 delegates. A packed house. Lots of Trade Ministers, lots of WTO Ambassadors, lots of press and lots of NGO types, like myself. As has been reported by numerous news outlets, there were protests and rioting in Geneva on Saturday ahead of the Ministerial. The usual stuff: cars on fire or turned over, windows broken. Thankfully no injuries.  Another protest is expected tomorrow: farmers they say. Unclear if tractors will be permitted. Stay tuned for that update tomorrow. Certainly, nothing will come close to what was witnessed in Seattle, but what is it about trade that brings out the worst in people?!!!

Back to the opening session of the Ministerial, where speakers were only given 3 minutes each. Have to accommodate a lot of Trade Ministers. Surprisingly, most kept to the limit as well.  No surprises from Lamy’s address. Highlights included: " WTO can serve as a platform for economic recovery," and "WTO is also about ensuring that existing rules/commitments are enforced." On Doha: "Time is running out. Moment of truth is approaching. You (Trade Ministers) will decide if 2010 target date will be met." Obviously, he was referring to the numerous recent political statements from the G-20 leaders and APEC which call for concluding Doha in 2010, which is right around the corner the last time I checked.

I thought that Ambassador Kirk did a masterful job with his 3 minutes. Sometimes people need a long time to get their message across, but I assure you, he did not. Highlights:

"The United States is committed to achieving such an outcome, and I believe that success is possible in 2010. But substance will drive our progress, and success is not something that any one Member, or any small group of Members, can deliver or dictate. The circle of leadership within the WTO has grown broader and more inclusive and Each and every Member of this leadership group has a responsibility."

"We cannot confuse process and substance. All shortcuts will only lead to further delays and dead ends. There simply is no substitute for the hard work of negotiations in all formats among Members - ranging from large groups to direct bilateral engagement."

"For our part, the United States' negotiating team is ready to move into the endgame. We have made our specific interests well known: that meaningful market opening is required to complete the Round. And we are looking for concrete signs from other members that they are ready to join us in that commitment. We welcome the opportunity to work with you to achieve the goal to which we have all committed ourselves."

3 minutes well spent, Ambassador Kirk. Day 2 of Ministerial tomorrow. Expect an update on Ministerial happenings, farmer protest, and some musings about Brazil. Is Celso Amorim the new Kamal Nath?

Scene Setting: WTO Ministerial-Day One

by Christopher Wenk

Along with several of my colleagues from the U.S. business community, I am attending the Seventh Session of the WTO Ministerial Conference in Geneva, Switzerland, which takes place from today through Wednesday (December 2). I am attending the Ministerial on behalf of the U.S. Chamber, which has been a stalwart advocate of the rules-based trading system and the on-going Doha Round of WTO negotiations.

The general theme for the Ministerial, which is not a “negotiating” Ministerial, is “The WTO, the Multilateral Trading System and the Current Global Economic Environment.” After the drama of recent Ministerial Conferences, WTO Director General Pascal Lamy, and others, are hoping this one will be low-key and drama free. That is a wise idea given the state of the global economy, the state of the Doha Round and the fresh memories of the collapse of the last Ministerial in July 2008.

Unfortunately, recent Ministerial Conferences have been high on expectations and disappointing on results. Many thought the July 2008 Ministerial had a real chance for success. After a slow start, that Ministerial was building up some momentum before it collapsed altogether over the so-called "special safeguard mechanism (SSM)" for agriculture. It was not a pretty sight including lots of finger pointing. Earlier Ministerials had similar results.  

Fast forward to this week's Ministerial and it definitely has a different feel and different expectations. This is the first WTO Ministerial for a lot of new key players (think USTR Ron Kirk, India's Sharma and EU placeholder) and Doha is not a primary focus whatsoever. After all, it is not a negotiating Ministerial like we have grown so used to in the recent past.

As Trade Ministers gather in Geneva this week, I think back to the U.S. Chamber member companies who have told me over and over again that the WTO is about more than Doha. The focus of this Ministerial proves that point. However, Doha is certainly the elephant sitting in the room this week as the negotiations were launched over 8 years ago this month.

Signals from Obama Administration on Doha

by Christopher Wenk
 
As I blogged from Europe last week as part of the Chamber’s Doha Trade Delegation, people in Geneva have been looking for more signals from the Obama Administration on the Doha Round of World Trade Organization (WTO) negotiations. I think it safe to that yesterday’s confirmation hearing at the Senate Finance Committee for two key Obama trade nominees did the trick.

As Reuters reported on the hearing:

The United States will not agree to a deal in world trade talks unless other countries make better offers to open their markets to U.S. farmers, manufacturers and service companies, two U.S. trade nominees said on Wednesday.

"I believe a good deal is doable. But we will not do a deal at any cost," Michael Punke, President Barack Obama's choice to be U.S. ambassador to the World Trade Organization, said at a Senate Finance Committee hearing on his nomination.

"From my meetings and conversations with members (of Congress), with your staffs and with various stakeholder groups, I understand very clearly: No deal is better than a bad deal," Punke said.

The Doha round of world trade talks was launched eight years ago with the goal of helping poor countries prosper through trade. World leaders recently set a goal of concluding a deal in the long-running talks next year.

But U.S. trade officials have said they need much more clarity about market openings that big developing countries like China, Brazil and India are willing to make in exchange for politically difficult cuts in U.S. farm subsidies and peak industrial tariffs.

The United States is being asked to make "significant" cuts in domestic support and export subsidies for farmers, said Islam "Isi" into the markets of both developed and emerging economies," Siddiqui said.

Even more important was a point made by Punke (a member of the Senator Max Baucus Alumni Association), that our business delegation reinforced in all of our meetings last week:

"From my standpoint, the worst possible outcome in Doha would be to accept something in Geneva, bring it back to Congress, and have Congress reject it," Punke said. 

Signal received…